October 12th - Rafa's Reign Continues
The 2020 Grand Slam calendar came to end in October after a pretty average French Open. Here's a final update on my brackets along with analysis of each championship match.
Men’s Singles: 71-56
Women’s Singles: 63-64
Men’s Doubles: 36-27
Women’s Doubles: 40-23
Men's Singles: [2] Rafael Nadal d. [1] Novak Djokovic 6-0, 6-2, 7-5
The only fitting way to end 2020 was with a 20-20 tie atop the grand slam leaderboard. Rafael Nadal ensured that would happen after a clay court masterclass 6-0 6-2 7-5 thrashing of Novak Djokovic. Nadal’s 13th Roland Garros title and 20th major victory ties Roger Federer’s current count of 20 slams and keeps Djokovic a somewhat distant third with 17 slams.
Seemingly all the outside factors and elements (plus a surprising amount of analysts) favored Djokovic to not only get to final but upend Rafa. The chilly and damp Parisian fall…the new balls that played heavier and didn’t bounce as high…the roof on Chatrier. Easily a recipe for a Djokovic win, right?
Wrong. This is Nadal in Paris, the single greatest ‘athlete-to-venue’ in sports history: 100-2, 13 titles, unbeaten after the quarterfinals. In case you were wondering, Rafa’s only losses came in the 2009 fourth round to Robin Soderling and the 2016 quarterfinals to Novak Djokovic. Rafa also withdrew prior to his third round bout in 2015. It’s a record that will never be broken and the scary thing is—Nadal looks game enough to win four or five more Roland Garros titles.
Women's Singles: Iga Swiatek d. [4] Sofia Kenin 6-4, 6-1
On the women’s side we had a much different coronation as 19-year-old Pole Iga Swiatek won her first major in dominant fashion 6-4, 6-1 over Sofia Kenin. Swiatek lost 28 games in seven matches, tied for the second fewest for a Roland Garros champ…ever. Steffi Graff dropped just 20 in her famed 1988 season which included a double bagel in the final.
Swiatek is the ninth first-time slam champion in the last 14 majors and the first player from Poland to host a slam trophy. (Aga Radwanska was the closest but never got over the hump).
For the last few matches I’ve been reminded of the 2017 French Open and Jelena Ostapenko’s breakthrough. But there are a few notable differences: Ostapenko was 20-years-old, Swiatek is still a teenager. The Latvian lost a set in five of her seven matches, the Pole’s closest set was a 6-4 win. Ostapenko is short and powerful, Swiatek is taller and still growing into her power. The big question is whether or not this star can grow into an all-court player and maintain the momentum from this win—not only her first slam title but also her first WTA tournament title.
There are plenty of lessons to take away from the delayed Roland Garros. Foremost among those…NEVER bet against Nadal on the clay courts of Paris. Especially in eight months when we do this all over agin in May and June.
October 9th - Championship Weekend
In both the men’s and women’s singles finals at Roland Garros, the intrigue is there. More so on the men’s side, but that’s not to take anything away from the women’s match. Before a deeper dive, a look at my utmost mediocre efforts at predicting this cold, damp and autumnal slam in Paris:
Men’s Singles: 70-56
Women’s Singles: 63-64
Men’s Doubles: 36-27
Women’s Doubles: 40-23
Women’s Singles: [4] Sofia Kenin vs Iga Swiatek
One of the least talked about storylines of the entire tennis season is the fact that Kenin is two successful sets away from winning two majors in the same calendar year. The last woman to complete the Australian Open-French Open double was of course Serena Williams (she has the three most recent instances). Outside of that, Amelie Mauresmo did it in 2006.
Kenin hasn’t cruised to the final but is playing a very solid brand of tennis. She’s brash, confident and gets upset when her execution isn’t peaking. I love it. It turns a lot of fans off but sometimes tennis doesn’t have to be about the lovable feel-good story. Kenin is just 21-years-old and will mellow out as her career matures. But let’s enjoy this fiery American while we have her dominating.
But for as much as Kenin hasn’t cruised, Polish teenager Iga Swiatek—say it with me, EEE-gah Shh-wii-AH-tek)—has done just that. Swiatek started off with an upset of last year’s finalist Marketa Vondrousova and never looked back. She’s won all 12 sets to the tune of: 6-1, 6-2, 6-1, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-1, 6-2, 6-1.
Men’s Doubles
Mate Pavic and Bruno Soares go for the US Open-French Open double against defending Roland Garros champions Kevin Krawietz and Andreas Mies. Pavic is probably the best doubles player in the world right now with two men’s grand slam titles, two mixed grand slam titles and five more major final appearances including this weekend.
Men’s Singles: [1] Novak Djokovic vs [2] Rafael Nadal
This is a pretty solid way to end the tennis year. Okay, that was a gross understatement. It’s No. 1 Novak Djokovic against No. 2 Rafa Nadal, but on clay those rankings are irrelevant. Nadal has topped Djokovic in the French final on two separate occasions, both four-set wins. By now you know the numbers…this would be Rafa’s 13th Roland Garros title and 20th major. Nole wins and his grand slam count ticks up to 18. Either way, Roger Federer’s record of 20 is nowhere near safe anymore.
Many people panicked when Nadal lost in straight sets to Diego Schwartzman in the Rome QF. You can beat Rafa on clay in a best of three match but almost no one can in best of five. Only Robin Soderling (2009 4R) and Djokovic (2015 QF) have accomplished that feat. And by the way, Novak didn’t even win the tournament the year he overcame Nadal in the quarters.
This has been a relatively easy tournament for Nadal: 6-4, 6-4, 6-2, 6-1, 6-0, 6-3, 6-1, 6-4, 6-0, 6-1, 6-1, 6-2, 7-6, 6-4, 6-1, 6-3, 6-3, 7-6. The only two tiebreak sets came at the behest of Jannik Sinner and Schwartzman. Djokovic has had a bit of a rougher go this fortnight, cruising in the first four rounds before dropping a set to nemesis Pablo Carreno Busta and nearly blowing a two-sets-to-love lead against Greek 22-year-old Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semis (6-3, 6-2, 5-7, 4-6, 6-1).
Women’s Doubles
Timea Babos and Kiki Mladenovic won the “semifinal that felt like a final” 7-5 in the third over the Czech duo of Barbara Krejcikova and Katerina Siniakova. The two seeds could repeat as champions in Paris but must get through the hottest clay court team in the world with Alexa Guarachi and Desirae Krawczyk. The Chilean-American duo are both products of NCAA tennis with Guarachi attending Alabama and Krawczyk starring for Arizona State.
Picks
Swiatek soars in straight sets
Pavic & Soares pull the US-French double in three sets
Nadal reaches 20 slams in four sets
Guarachi & Krawczyk pull the upset in three sets
October 4th - A Forgettable First Week
In many ways, this French Open has produced what I expected from the US Open: deep runs by unheralded qualifiers and wild cards, a quality of tennis that at times is lacking and a forgettable overall atmosphere. Sure, there have been bright spots and surprises but not it hasn't been your usual major. A quick update on my brackets, which--spoiler alert--are some of the least accurate I've ever filled out, save for both doubles draws (lol).
Men's Singles: 64-52
Women's Singles: 63-64
Men's Doubles: 33-15
Woman's Doubles: 37-11
Now back to business. After a week of watching all kinds of matches on the red clay of Roland Garros, here are five observations:
The Weather - It hasn't been as big a factor as I thought it could. Yes, it has rained at times and been pretty consistently cold throughout the first eight days of play (when was the last time you saw male and female players alike wearing long sleeves and leggings)? The courts are certainly slower and harder to hit through but this hasn't impacted the top guys too much.
COVID Protocols - The French Tennis Federation hasn't been nearly as strict as the USTA. Fans are allowed at the tournament and while players can only go between the grounds and one of two hotels, the whole event seems pretty lax overall. In fact, Alexander Zverev played with a fever of 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit in Sunday's loss.
The Expected Breakthroughs - At some point, the world was going to find out about Italian Jannik Sinner and Pole Iga Swiatek. I'm happy both breakthroughs came at a major. Each player is 19-years-old. Sinner has lost just one set en route to the QF (a date with 12-time champion Rafa Nadal) and that came on Sunday in a four set win over the aforementioned Zverev. Swiatek had the most impressive win of the year, bludgeoning her way to a 6-1, 6-2 triumph over top seed and overwhelming favorite Simona Halep.
The Unexpected Breakthroughs - Two qualifiers are in the women's quarterfinals as 23-year-old Argentine Nadia Podorosa (lost just two sets in seven matches) and 26-year-old Florentine Martina Trevisan (wins over Giorgi, Gauff, Sakkari, Bertens). Podorosa is ranked 131 while Trevisan is 159th in the world right now. Unheard of. You also have 22-year-old Paula Badosa (No. 87 in the world) alive on the bottom half. On the men's side the No. 186 ranked player in the world, 22-year-old Daniel Altmaier is in the fourth round after sweeping Matteo Berrettini. But the unsung hero of the tournament is 20-year-old Frenchman Hugo Gaston, who sliced, lobbed and drop shotted his way to a near monumental upset of Dominic Thiem.
Favorites - On the men's side we still have the potential for a Djokovic-Nadal final which should happen as both guys have been steamrolling the competition. Of course Dominic Thiem still lurks but I'm not confident in anyone outside of Rafa or Nole. On the women's side, just two prior Grand Slam champions remain in Petra Kvitova (2011 & 2014 Wimbledon) and Sofia Kenin (2020 Australian). But I think the winner of the likely top half semifinal between Iga Swiatek and Elina Svitolina takes the title. Swiatek is hotter right now but I think it could be Svitolina's time to hoist her first major trophy.
September 28th - Doubles Brackets
With the first round of the French Open spanned over three days, I figured it was time to throw in a little doubles analysis. Check out my predictions for men's and women's doubles by clicking here.
Men's Doubles: [2] Granollers/Zeballos over [11] Peers/Venus
There are a lot of great doubles players out there right now and still a bunch of really solid teams. But in my eyes the most dangerous pairs on clay are the following: Cabal & Farah, Melzer & Roger-Vasselin, Chardy & Martin, Rojer & Tecau, Pavic & Soares, Koolhof & Mektic and my two finalists Peers & Venus along with Granollers & Zeballos. I'd be surprised if one of those pairs doesn't hoist the trophy in two weeks.
However, do look out for the re-united French team of Nicolas Mahut and Pierre Hughes-Herbert and the North American duo Vasek Pospisil and Jack Sock, who won Wimbledon together back in 2014.
Women's Doubles: [1] Hsieh/Strycova over [4] Krejcikova/Siniakova
The Czech's have dominated women's doubles for the last 5-6 years and I don't expect that to change over the fortnight in Paris. Hsieh & Strycova are having a year for the ages with four tournament titles (Rome, Qatar, Dubai and Brisbane) and a 21-1 record. The lone loss came in the Australian Open finals. I expect that pattern to stay the same with a win over Aussie Open semifinalists Krejcikova & Siniakova in the championship match.
There are a handful of teams to watch out for that have been excellent of late, especially on clay: Guarachi & Krawczyk, Carter & Stefani, Aoyama & Shibahara and Dabrowski & Ostapenko. It also wouldn't shock me to see the two young, hard hitting Americans Coco Gauff and Caty McNally to make a run considering the conditions and their consistent doubles partnership.
September 25th - Rain In The Forecast...Lots Of It
Let me preface this by saying that I finally got my fiance to fill out a tennis bracket. So I must be doing something right with this blog and my tennis podcast Down The T. Back to business as The French Open is slated to start on Sunday in Paris! But my big question entering the first week regards how much tennis we'll actually get in over the first seven days. Check out the outlook from weather.com.
Stay with me here...we're still expecting there to be a tournament and a champion at some point in the near future. So without further ado, the 2020 Roland Garros preview.
Men's Singles: [2] Rafael Nadal over [1] Novak Djokovic CLICK HERE FOR BRACKET
With Dominic Thiem's recent triumph at the US Open, there's only two players that can realistically claim the French Open crown: Nadal and Djokovic. And believe it or not, that's my prediction for the championship. I do think there are more breakthroughs coming than usual from players ranked 10 through 50. With the short turnaround from hard court to clay court and pandemic conditions, it's not crazy to think that we'll have an unexpected quarterfinalist or two.
Going from top to bottom on the bracket, here are some players to watch out for and thoughts on how things will shake out:
- In the [1] Djokovic quarter, youngsters Hubert Hurkacz, Ugo Humbert and Christian Garin are lurk, along with three name Spaniards Pablo Carreno Busta and Roberto Bautista Agut. But when all is said and done, I'll take Djokovic over [7] Matteo Berrettini in the quarters.
- The [4] Medvedev quarter should not be called 'The Medvedev Quarter' because--BOLD PREDICTION ALERT--Daniil loses to Marton Fucsovics in the first round. The Russian is 0-3 all-time at Roland Garros and lost in straight sets to Ugo Humbert last week in the first round at Hamburg. Anyways, look for Andrey Rublev to make his first major semifinal, but not before a great quarterfinal with Shapovalov, Tsitsipas or Krajinovic.
- The [3] Thiem quarter is the toughest I've seen at a Grand Slam in quite some time. You have 2015 champion Stan Wawrinka (playing 2016 runner up Andy Murray in the first round). There's hot clay courters abound in Diego Schwartzman and Casper Ruud. Not to mention Thiem, the two-time defending French Open runner up. But Domi hasn't played since his US Open triumph and could have this path to the semifinals: Cilic, Sock/Opelka, Ruud, Wawrinka, Schwartzman.
- The [2] Nadal quarter is simple and no one should beat the 12-time champ in a best three of five set match. Other notables include Sascha Zverev, Daivd Goffin and 2018 semifinalist (and recent qualifier) Marco Cecchinato.
Give me Nadal over Thiem and Djokovic over Rublev with Rafa winning his 13th Roland Garros title. But because of the wet and heavy conditions, it's very possible that someone can wear Rafa down.
Women's Singles: [1] Simona Halep over [2] Karolina Pliskova CLICK HERE FOR BRACKET
Heading into the US Open, there were 10-15 women that were contending for the title. What a stark difference from the French Open where in my eyes there are two clear favorites. Just as in the men's draw, I'm taking the top two seeds to the final with Simona Halep winning her third Slam over Karolina Pliskova. Here's a section-by-section breakdown of the bracket:
- [1] Halep actually has a pretty tough draw round-by-round with the potential of playing Jil Teichmann, Amanda Anisimova, last year's finalist Marketa Vondrousova and Kiki Bertens. But after a fairly easy Rome win, I see Halep rolling to the semis. One match to look out for is the first rounder between 2019 semifinalist [9] Jo Konta and American Coco Gauff.
- The [3] Svitolina quarter is intriguing because the Ukranian just won the tune-up event at Strasbourg. The biggest threat to Svito is definitely [10] recent Cincinnati winner and US Open finalist Victoria Azarenka. Keep an eye on Serena Williams, always a threat but in my eyes not a true favorite for a deep run.
- On the bottom half of the draw, I would be stunned if the [4] Kenin quarter is won by Kenin. There are terrific clay courters like 2016 champion Garbine Muguruza, recent Strasbourg finalist Elena Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka and Donna Vekic. I'm curious to see how Jen Brady follows up her breakthrough performance at the US Open, but fully expect Rybakina or Muguruza to make the semifinals.
- There isn't a ton going on in [2] Pliskova's section...a few bigger names like Kvitova, Keys and Martic, along with former finalist Sloane Stephens and 2017 champion Jelena Ostapenko. Unless Pliskova's injury from Rome persists, I don't see a huge roadblock for the Czech player still seeking her first major.
I'll take Halep over Azarenka and Pliskova over Rybakina with Simona capturing her third major title. Enjoy the tournament and pray that it doesn't rain every single day in Paris!
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