September 14th - The COVID Slam Wraps Up
To the average tennis fan, Sunday evening’s US Open men’s final was uncharacteristic and sloppy. To me, it was the perfect way to end an unlikely tournament.
If you had told me two months ago that we’d get through the US Open—albeit in a bubble—I would’ve been skeptical to say the least. But here we are after two weeks in New York (three when you count the Cincinnati event held in Flushing Meadows) with a confirmation at the top of women’s tennis and a new Grand Slam champion on the men’s side for the first time since 2014.
Women’s Singles: (3) Naomi Osaka d. Victoria Azarenka 1-6, 6-3, 6-3
Osaka stormed back from a set down to win her third Grand Slam title and second at the US Open (2018, 2020). With the win over Azarenka—who was also seeking a third Slam—Osaka proved a few different points that we already knew about her.
1. You could see she’s built for big moments. Osaka has been past the quarterfinals in majors just three times, but won each of those tournaments.
2. She’s totally unflappable under pressure, and actually performs better when behind. With her back against the wall, Osaka starts ripping the ball. Like, next level type pace ripping the ball.
3. The social justice aspect of Osaka’s platform the last three weeks is as important an event as tennis has seen in quite some time. This is a 23-year-old that singlehandedly paused one of the biggest tennis tournaments in the world (Cincinnati) to raise awareness for social justice. She went to Minneapolis mid-pandemic to protest for George Floyd. And the best part? Osaka brought seven masks to the US Open with a different name on each to honor a black victim of racial injustice: Breonna Taylor, Elijah McClain, Ahmaud Arbery, Trayvon Martin, George Floyd, Philando Castile & Tamir Rice.
Good for Osaka coming through as the favorite. Good for Vika getting back to the top of women's tennis. Two of the best hard court players in the last 10-15 years. The French Open should be interesting in a few weeks.
Men’s Singles: (2) Dominic Thiem d. (5) Alexander Zverev 2-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6 (6)
I’m still trying to wrap my head around this match and don’t see how anyone can describe it in just one word. Yes, there’s the basic facts of this monumental US Open final: Thiem is the first man born in the 1990’s to win a Grand Slam, the first new major champion since Marin Cilic at the 2014 US Open, and the second Austrian to win a Slam after Thomas Muster (1995 Roland Garros). And in my eyes, there was no better way to take the crown then from good friend and rival Alexander “Sascha” Zverev.
There is a (semi-valid) argument that Thiem didn’t have to beat Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic to win his first major title. Well, Federer is out for the year after knee surgery, Djokovic beat himself by defaulting in the fourth round and Rafa sat out to be cautious of coronavirus. Many players would buckle at that moment but Thiem seized the opportunity and broke through. Plus, winning seven matches in a row is no easy feat and it’s not like the 27-year-old beat no-names. Domi took out Zverev in the final, No. 3 Daniil Medvedev in the semis, two top 20 players in Alex de Minaur and Felix Auger-Aliassime and 2014 champ Cilic.
But let’s go back to the championship match for a minute. If ‘tennis is a mental game’ could be represented by one match, this is it. Zverev is 23-years-old and played his first major final; Thiem is 27 (considered old, at least compared to the Next Gen players) and contested his fourth final. Thiem realized that he finally didn’t have to beat a member of the Big 3 to win a Slam, Zverev thought the same thing. But Thiem was just a big mentally tougher and steadier all tournament long.
The first four sets were sluggish, one-sided and not representative of a major final. People, we’re living in an era featuring unmatched dominance by the three greatest players of all time. Even some of their major finals aren’t pretty. Zverev took the first two sets easily and was up a break at 2-1 in the third. Thiem fought back to force a fifth and then the match really began. Each player broke three times in the final set. Zverev served for the championship at 5-3 before Thiem won three straight games (and then got broke himself). The tiebreak was punctuated by both players cramping and limping, Thiem to the point of not being able to walk.
It was both ugly and beautiful, cringe worthy and laugh emitting, painful and pure. Thiem and Zverev put on an epic, memorable end to a bizarre and fanless COVID based Grand Slam. Both these guys will win more majors and Sunday was the perfect way to launch into that next era of tennis. And yes, I’m comfortable saying that even though we are still very much living in the Big 3’s dominance.
September 12th - Looking At The Finals
Men's Singles: 79-48
Women's Singles: 78-49
Men's Doubles: 17-14
Women's Doubles:17-14
Woman's Final Preview
Two weekends ago, Naomi Osaka and Victoria Azarenka were supposed to meet in the Cincinnati finals. Osaka pulled out to rest her hamstring, and Vika won her first big title in years. Flash forward two weeks and that much anticipated championship match is happening on a much grander stage. Osaka and Azarenka meet on Saturday afternoon at 4:00pm for the US Open title. The winner hoists her third Grand Slam trophy, interestingly enough, all on hard courts. Vika won back to back Australian Opens in 2012 and 2013 while Osaka won back to back majors at the 2018 US Open and 2019 Australian Open.
Osaka overcame hard hitting American Jen Brady 7-6 (1), 3-6, 6-3 in an instant classic semifinal match. I can absolutely see a rivalry developing between these two over the next 5-10 years, just based on the way their styles match up. Brady rose all the way from 49th in the world to number 25 after her maiden tournament win in Lexington and her first major semifinal appearance.
In the other semi, Serena Williams looked well on her way to her 34th major final on her ongoing quest for No. 24. The first set was by far the best I've seen Serena play in quite some time. An easy 6-1 win, bashing winners off the ground and pounding aces left and right. But somewhere early in the second set, the momentum drastically shifted. Vika started swinging, Serena tweaked her achilles (an injury that I don't think decided the match) and Azarenka won the last two sets 6-3, 6-3.
That sets up a slugfest of a championship between Azarena--the mom who's long journey to return to the top of woman's tennis is complete--and Osaka--the face of the woman's game and the face of tennis's social justice movement. Head to head, these players have only met three times with Naomi winning the two most recent. However those were both on clay courts. The lone hard court meeting went to Azarenka in the 2016 Australian Open fourth round 6-1, 6-1.
Men's Final Preview
The last men's singles Grand Slam final without the Big 3 (Federer, Nadal, Djokovic) was 2016 Wimbledon when Andy Murray took down Milos Raonic. Considering Murray was at one point a member of the Big 4, you have to go all the way back six years ago to the 2014 US Open final (Marin Cilic d. Kei Nishikori) to find a championship match that didn't have at least one of those four players. But here we are in 2020 resetting that clock.
No. 2 Dominic Thiem is set for a date with friend and rival No. 5 Alexander Zverev. It's the Austrian's fourth major final (all in the last three years) but first not playing a man named Rafa or Novak. For Zverev, this first Grand Slam final is the culmination of a lot of hype and hard work over the last five years. Most people including myself figured that Zverev would cruise to the finals and Thiem or Daniil Medvedev would battle through a grueling semi. Well the opposite happened.
Zverev was mentally absent for the first two sets against No. 20 Pablo Carreno Busta (the beneficiary of the Djokovic default: see below). But the turning point of the match came late in the second set when the German, trailing 6-3, 5-0 rattled off two straight games. That was all Sascha needed to get going en route to a 3-6, 2-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 win over PCB. In the nightcap, Thiem took advantage of a slow start by Medvedev and a bad missed call by the chair umpire to take the first set 6-2. In each of the next two sets, the Russian led by a break including 4-1 in the third after Thiem had tweaked his ankle. But the Austrian was up to the challenge, rallying to win each tiebreaker and close out the semifinal in straight sets.
Thiem leads the head to head with Zverev 7-2 including a four set win in this year's Australian Open semis and a straight setter in last fall's ATP Finals semis. On hard court, Domi leads the series 3-1, but each has won one of two played on outdoor hard. There's no doubt that Thiem is the favorite: against Medvedev, the 27-year-old appeared more experienced and comfortable in the moment, as if he had played the Big 3 on big stages more often (he has). I'd argue having no fans helps Zverev more, but it shouldn't matter as Thiem has waited a long time to win his first major. And ironically enough, it won't be at the French Open.
Picks
- Osaka over Azarenka in three hard-hitting sets
- Thiem over Zverev in four relatively pain free sets
September 8th - Novak Djokovic Defaults From US Open
Turns out the only player that can beat Novak Djokovic in 2020 is...Novak Djokovic. But after a 26-0 start to the season, the world number one didn't just 'beat himself' with unforced errors or a mental lapse. Djokovic defaulted from the US Open in the fourth round after an egregious lapse in judgement.
Veteran Spainiard Pablo Carreno Busta had just broken Djokovic for a 6-5 lead in the first set. In clear frustration, Djokovic took a ball from his pocket and flicked it with his racquet towards the backstop. It struck a lines judge in the throat and she gasped and went down immediately. Djokovic wasn't looking where he hit the ball but was clearly apologetic in the direct aftermath. That doesn't excuse his actions at all.
Djokovic has been plagued by these sorts of incidents time and time again in his decorated career. He nearly hit a line judge at the 2016 French Open, throwing his racquet backward in frustration - and then claimed to media afterwards that the sort of behavior wouldn't come back to bite him later on. Fast forward to 2020 and Djokovic lost out on a golden opportunity to win his 18th Grand Slam. And let's not mince words here: a default was the only acceptable ruling here.
Per the rulebook, any ball struck "dangerously or recklessly within the court, or with negligent disregard of the consequences" warrants a default. I'm sure Djokovic knew right away he was in trouble. Yet according to journalists on site, the Serbian tried to plea his case in a pretty pathetic way. "She doesn't have to go to the hospital for this...you're going to choose a default in this situation? My career, grand slam, center stage." On that note, enter Nick Kyrgios. The much maligned and outspoken (but usually correct) Australian had in my eyes an astute and hilarious take on the situation.
I'm shaking my head at the sheer audacity. Rules are rules and no one--not even the number one player in the world--is above them. The only more concerning thing than how Djokovic reacted is how many fans around the world reacted, shelling blame out on the lines person for ending Djokovic's run. I won't spend much time on that, as it's a comical interpretation of an unfortunate situation.
It's no secret that Djokovic has had a trying year in 2020. In June he organized an exhibtiion in Serbia and Croatia called the Adria Tour. There were hardly any social distancing measures and many top players were seen out partying, high-fiving and hugging. The Tour was abandoned after a week when Grigor Dimitrov, Borna Coric, Viktor Troicki and Djokovic himself tested positive for Coronavirus. Recently, Djokovic and Canadian Vasek Pospisil among other players formed the Professional Tennis Players Association (PTPA). The timing is odd and the intentions seem unclear, especially if this association doesn't include women. Side note: Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal aren't the guys you want speaking out against something you're trying to do.
The best way to sum this up is twofold:
While Djokovic may not have intended to hit the lines person, he did and needs to own his actions. Someone was hurt, a player broke the rules and that player was defaulted from the event.
This paves the way for one of the final eight men to win his first major and (finally) give us an active Slam champ in his 20's. In order of who I think has the best shot to win the title: Daniil Medvedev, Dominic Thiem, Andrey Rublev, Dennis Shapovalov, Alexander Zverev, Borna Coric, Pablo Carreno Busta, Alex de Minaur.
Just so both sides of the story are covered, you can read Djokovic's reaction on Instagram and Twitter. The default costs Nole $267,500 which if we're being honest is chump change for a man with $144,000,000 in career on-court earnings (not counting sponsorships). That breaks down into $250,000 of prize money, $10,000 for unsportsmanlike conduct and a $7,500 fine for skipping a required media session after defaulting.
Speaking of facing the media, I'll leave you with this: three years ago in a Davis Cup tie against Kyle Edmund and Great Britain, Shapovalov hit a ball as hard as he could in frustration that struck the chair umpire in the face. Dennis owned up to his actions both on court and to the media, apologized and still keeps up with that umpire. And I thought the current US Open quarterfinalist had a very honest take on the Djokovic incident, a very similar and very different situation. Shapovalov was 17-years-old at the time. Djokovic is 33 right now. Take that for what it's worth, and do not put an asterisk on this major. One of the eight men left will be a well deserving champion come Sunday.
September 6th - Fourth Round Preview
Men's Singles: 76-36
Women's Singles: 73-39
Men's Doubles: 13-11
Women's Doubles:16-8
After nearly a full week of play at the National Tennis Center, 16 men and 16 women remain in the singles brackets with eight teams left in both doubles draws. There have been a few surprises like No. 1 seed Karolina Pliskova losing early and No. 4 Stefanos Tsitsipas blowing six match points and losing a fifth set tiebreak to Borna Coric. But mostly the top players are still around. Here's a look at the 16, round of 16 matches in singles.
Men's Singles
[1] Novak Djokovic vs [28] Pablo Carreno Busta - I still maintain 'take Novak if you were offered Djokovic or the field'. PCB made the US Open SF in 2017 but this should be relatively easy.
Pick: Djokovic in 3
[12] Dennis Shapovalov vs [7] David Goffin - The ease with which Goffin dispensed Filip Krajinovic is a true testament to his consistency and growing game. Shapo has played two four-setters and a five-setter.
Pick: Goffin in 4
[27] Borna Coric vs Jordan Thompson - The only question here is whether Coric is recovered from that four-hour epic against Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Croat saved six match points and won a fifth set tiebreak. Lately, Australians John Millman and Thompson are becoming sure things for a win or two at majors.
Pick: Thompson in 5
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs [5] Alexander Zverev - I expected big things from the young Spainiard after spending quarantine training with Djokovic. He's exceeded even my lofty expectations. Now playing with house money, expect a competitive match.
Pick: Zverev in 4
[6] Matteo Berrettini vs [10] Andrey Rublev - The only two players that haven't lost a set yet, Berrettini has looked solid and Rublev has looked great. Unfortunately, the reward for the winner is a likely QF against Daniil Medvedev. Tennis is cruel.
Pick: Rublev in 4
Francis Tiafoe vs [3] Daniil Medvedev - The last American man standing, Tiafoe has improved every round including a very impressive straight set showing against Marton Fucsovics. But let's not kid ourselves, Medvedev is one of three favorites to win this event.
Pick: Medvedev in 3
Vasek Pospisil vs [21] Alex de Minaur - Seems like the new Professional Tennis Players Association has sparked a run in Pospisil, including taking down heavily favored countryman Milos Raonic. de Minaur continues to produce solid hard court results and should get to his first Slam QF at the ripe old age of 21.
Pick: de Minaur in 4
[15] Felix Auger-Aliassime vs [2] Dominic Thiem - For the first time ever we have three Canadian men in the round of 16 at a Grand Slam (FAA + Shapo + Pospisil). The young Canadian has improved every round but Dominic Thiem seems to be finding his game on the hard courts.
Pick: Thiem in 5
Women's Singles
[28] Jennifer Brady vs [17] Angelique Kerber - The American Brady just won her first career event in Lexington and hasn't been tested (won every set by at least 6-3). Kerber has surprised me with her form coming out of the pause.
Pick: Brady in 2
[23] Yulia Putintseva vs [8] Petra Martic - Both players favor clay courts and the fourth round of the US Open is their best hard court major.
Pick: Martic in 3
[4] Naomi Osaka vs [14] Anett Kontaveit - Osaka is playing some good tennis the last two weeks but faces her toughest challenge yet. Kontaveit made the Aussie Open QF earlier this year and is playing very well.
Pick: Osaka in 3
Shelby Rogers vs [6] Petra Kvitova - Rogers hasn't lost a set yet and tries to match her best Slam result (2016 Roland Garros QF). Kvitova is coming off a comprehensive win over Jessica Pegula.
Pick: Kvitova in 2
Alize Cornet vs Tsvetana Pironkova - Cornet had some good results in Cincinnati but has never made the QF of a major. Pironkova is a grizzled veteran that excels on grass but hasn't lost a set yet in New York.
Pick: Cornet in 3
[15] Maria Sakkari vs [3] Serena Williams - Serena overcame a tricky matchup with Sloane Stephens in the third round and is getting better each match. Sakkari took out American teen Amanda Anisimova and recently beat Serena in the Cincinnati Masters played in New York.
Pick: Serena in 3
Victoria Azarenka vs [20] Karolina Muchova - There is no player in better form than Azarenka. The Cincinnati champion has lost 13 games in six sets and looks like the Azarenka of 2012-2013 (two Aussie Open titles, two US Open runner ups, Wimbledon SF, Roland Garros SF). Muchova seems to be improving each round and looks to match her best Slam results (2019 Wimbledon quarterfinals).
Pick: Azarenka in 2
[16] Elise Mertens vs [2] Sofia Kenin - Mertens is always a tricky matchup, and her very successful doubles partnership with Aryna Sabalenka (2019 US Open champions) has really helped her singles game. Kenin looked suspect in Cincinnati but has improved each round in New York.
Pick: Kenin in 3
I'll end on this note: as expected, there's been some COVID-19 related drama in the bubble as well. Once Benoit Paire tested positive before the tournament, many French players he'd been in contact with were put in even more restrictive quarantine. Think: hotel room, tennis court, hotel room, etc... Kiki Mladenovic is one of those players and ripped tournament officials about it (albeit this was after blowing a 6-1, 5-1 lead). Adrian Mannarino almost wasn't allowed to play his third round match because of a potential issue with the bubble.
From a broad view, the US Open seems to be going fine. We'll see if that can be said when players go to Europe next week for the clay court season (Rome & Roland Garros). Because, you guessed it, the French Open will allow thousands of spectators in the stands.
September 2nd - First Round Analysis
Men's Singles: 50-14
Women's Singles: 46-19
Ever watched a college or junior tennis match with one person in the stands, where the only natural sound is the thunking of the ball of the strings? That's what this US Open feels like, especially on the outer courts. And if the first round tells us anything in terms of how the tournament is going to go, buckle up for some more long matches.
Seeds on the women's side went 29-3. That's remarkable given how many early upsets there usually are. 26 of the 31 men's seeds won (Benoit Paire was a seed and wasn't allowed to play after a positive COVID-19 test). American's didn't fare as well with 11 of the 22 men advancing and 16 out of 32 women moving on. And while there were a lot of straight forward matches, we also had numerous three and four hour marathons. 14 men's matches went five sets with seven of comebacks from two-sets-to-love down and 20 women's contests went three sets and 11 featured a comeback from one set down.
Serena Williams advanced in straight sets, setting the US Open record for most singles wins with 102 victories and improving her first round record to 20-0. Sister Venus lost in straight sets to Karolina Muchova. With a day off, Serena gets to rest as the top side of the draw opens up second round play. Three matches to watch out for include Pliskova-Garcia, Bellis-Brady and Osaka Giorgi.
The Djokovic half of the draw also plays today, which is still very much just that: Djokovic against everyone else. There are some intriguing matches thanks to the crop of young talent that advanced to the round of 64. Check out Hurkacz-Davidovich Fokina for a glimpse at two future top 15 players. I'm also interested in American Taylor Fritz taking on veteran Frenchman Gilles Simon and the young fiery Canadian Denis Shapovalov against the young deaf Korean Soonwoo Kwon. Yes, you read that correctly as Kwon was born deaf but has risen to a top 75 ranking in the world.
Side note, the men's and women's doubles draws are out. And there's even less data to go off then the singles draws! So without getting into it too much, I'll take the No. 4 seeds Kveta Peschke and Demi Schuurs to win the title with Lucie Hradecka and Andreja Klepac as runner ups. On the men's side, give me No. 8 Wesley Koolholf & Nikola Mektic over Jean-Julien Rojer & Horia Tecau in the finals. Check out my full brackets here
August 31st - Singles Predictions
If you had told me a few months ago that the US Open would be played this year--on time, much less--I would have called you crazy. But here we are in this COVID world just hours away from first serve of the second tennis Grand Slam of the season. This tournament is fascinating to me for a number of reasons: playing a major in front of no fans, seeing how fresh players are coming right off a Masters 1000/WTA Premier 5 event, and I'm just genuinely curious to see how many players & personnel test positive for coronavirus during the next two weeks.
Shameless Plug: Before you read on, I also put together a tennis podcast and have a US Open preview edition out now!
Men's Singles - No. 1 Novak Djokovic over No. 3 Daniil Medvedev (BRACKET HERE)
This is the first Grand Slam since the 1999 US Open where either (or both) Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal aren't in the field. Federer is out for the year recovering from knee surgery while Nadal opted not to make the trip overseas to the New York bubble. In my eyes that leaves Novak Djokovic as the heavy favorite to win his 18th major title. Nole is already 23-0 this year and got pushed to three sets in both the semis (d. Roberto Bautista Agut) and finals (d. Milos Raonic) of the Western & Southern Open. If you asked me to take Djokovic or the field of 127, I'd probably take Djokovic because he's that good on hard court.
According to players and other people at the National Tennis Center, the courts are playing super fast, especially when it's hot out. That favors big servers like John Isner, who is in Djokovic's draw as a potential fourth round. I'd expect plenty of early upsets with mostly chalk at the end. The most brutal section of the draw has to be the aforementioned Bautista Agut & Raonic potentially meeting in the third round with hard hitting Russian Karen Khachanov in the fourth round.
Some interesting first round matches to watch out for include No. 7 David Goffin against Reilly Opelka, No. 5 Alex Zverev against Kevin Anderson, Mackie McDonald taking on No. 27 Casper Ruud, No. 14 Grigor Dimitrov going against Tommy Paul, No. 11 Khachanov dueling the young Italian Jannik Sinner and Andy Murray (he's back!) against Yoshi Nishioka.
SF/F picks: I'll take Djokovic over Tsitsipas on the top half & Medvedev over Khachanov on the bottom half with Djoker taking down Medvedev for the title.
Women's Singles - No. 2 Sofia Kenin over No. 3 Naomi Osaka (BRACKET HERE)
Talk about up in the air...the women's draws at recent Grand Slams have generally been wide open. Now throw in the fact that we only have a few weeks of tournaments leading up to the Grand Slam after a five month shutdown and it really is anyone's game. I'd expect some unseeded players to make fairly deep runs but believe a few top seeds will be standing at the end. I think there are a lot of Americans that could make runs like recent first-time tournament champion Jen Brady. Aly Riske is also a threat to go deep, as are Serena, Sofia Kenin and Madison Keys. Look out for CiCi Bellis, Hailey Baptiste and Caty McNally as well, who likes to play doubles with now household name CoCo Gauff.
As far as tough sections go, top seed Karolina Pliskova (a former US Open finalist) has a rough potential matchup each round while Serena got a fairly light draw. This is really anyone's game especially after unseeded Vika Azarenka took the title in Cincinnati last week. Vika has a potential second rounder with fellow countrywoman Aryna Sabalenka. A couple really intriguing first round matchups include Gauff taking on 2018 semifinalist and No. 31 seed Anastasija Sevastova while American and former Aussie Open semifinalist Danielle Collins meets No. 14 Anett Kontaveit.
SF/F picks: I'll take Osaka over Martic on the top half & Kenin over Serena on the bottom half with Kenin taking down Osaka for her 2nd Slam of the year.
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